The Humble Market Update
- Gerald McMillan
- Apr 6
- 2 min read
Top Headlines & Summaries
1. Wild Round Trip Leaves MBS Weaker Despite Huge Initial Rally
In a nutshell: Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) prices ended the day roughly where they started, despite some big swings throughout the day.
Key Takeaways:
MBS prices went up initially but then dropped back down.
This kind of back-and-forth movement is normal in the bond market.
The final result wasn't a big change from the previous day.
These price fluctuations impact mortgage interest rates.
Understanding MBS is important for anyone involved in housing finance.
2. Rate Rally Reverses, But Focus on Bigger Picture
In a nutshell: Mortgage rates went up a bit after decreasing earlier, but they're still at their lowest point since early October 2024.
Key Takeaways:
Rates had been declining but reversed course.
They are still relatively low compared to recent months
The “bigger picture” is the overall trend of rates.
Daily fluctuations are normal, and the long-term trend matters more.
This is good news for potential homebuyers.
3. Mortgage Applications Ebbed This Week, But Next Week Could Be a Different Story
In a nutshell: Mortgage applications dipped slightly this week, but there's a chance they could rebound next week.
Key Takeaways:
Applications decreased by a small amount (1.6%).
This follows the general trend of the current market.
Next week's data could show different results.
MBA is a key resource for understanding the mortgage market
Several factors can impact application volume.
4. Huge Overnight Gains on Trade War Escalation; Jobs Report an Afterthought
In a nutshell: Concerns about trade wars boosted bond prices overnight, overshadowing the usual importance of the jobs report.
Key Takeaways:
Trade war fears caused investors to seek safer investments like bonds.
This "flight to safety" pushed bond prices up.
The jobs report had less impact than usual.
"Risk off" mentality led investors from riskier assets such as stocks to bonds
Geopolitical events can significantly impact the bond and stock markets.
5. Subservicer, Non-Agency Products; Trigger Leads, HECM, FHA News; Does a Slow Economy Equal Lower Rates?
In a nutshell: An industry expert discusses various mortgage topics, including industry consolidation and the relationship between a slow economy and interest rates.
Key Takeaways:
Larger companies are acquiring smaller ones in the mortgage industry.
This consolidation is ongoing.
There is professional discussion regarding implications
The article explores the various mortgage-related factors, in addition to the discussion of rates.
A slow economy doesn't always mean lower rates.
Other Important News:
Numerous news stories covered tariffs, inflation, the Fed's actions, and economic data releases. Several of these mentioned rate impacts. There is extensive discussion regarding trade relations between China and the US.
Mortgage Rates as of 4/4/2025
30-Year Fixed: 6.60% (-0.03%)
15-Year Fixed: 6.02% (-0.03%)
30-Year Jumbo: 6.75% (-0.05%)
7/6 SOFR ARM: 6.05% (-0.05%)
30-Year FHA: 6.03% (-0.04%)
30-Year VA: 6.05% (-0.04%)
MBS and Treasury Prices as of 4/4/2025:
UMBS 30YR 5.5: 100.34 (-0.04)
10-Year US Treasury: 105.063 (+0.197)
I hope this summary is helpful! Let me know if you have any more questions.
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